An agent-based modeling framework to examine the hurricane evacuation dynamics 1.0.0
The model code, written in Fortran, is a new agent-based modeling platform for investigating the complex dynamics of the integrated hurricane evacuation system. Specifically, empirically-informed models are built representing three interwoven elements relevant to hurricane evacuations: the natural hazard (hurricane, forecasts, warning information), the human system (information flow, evacuation-related decisions), and the built environment (infrastructure, evacuation traffic). National Hurricane Center products, synthesized into a light-system (red-orange-yellow-green) forecasts, represent the hurricane, forecasts, and warning information. Two agent-based models replicate the flow of information, evacuee decision-making, and evacuation infrastructure, routing, and traffic. By integrating the models into a unified, agent-based framework, we create a virtual laboratory uniquely positioned to advance fundamental knowledge of the hurricane evacuation system’s behavior. The model’s “virtual world” is intended to represent an abstracted version of the Florida peninsula. The forecast inputs are for Hurricane Irma, but the model can be extended to a variety of hurricane scenarios, real or imagined, and additional landscapes.
Release Notes
This model simulates evacuations on a simplified representation of Florida, a place frequently visited by tropical systems and with notable mass evacuations like Irma. Forecast inputs are for Hurricane Irma. The model was designed to be flexible, however, and thus the modeling framework can be modified to study other regions and hurricanes.