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In this paper, we explore the dynamic of stock prices over time by developing an agent-based market. The developed artificial market comprises of heterogeneous agents occupied with various behaviors and trading strategies. To be specific, the agents in the market may expose to overconfidence, conservatism or loss aversion biases. Additionally, they may employ fundamental, technical, adaptive (neural network) strategies or simply being arbitrary agents (zero intelligence agents). The market has property of direct interaction. The environment takes the form of network structure, namely, it takes the manifestation of scale-free network. The information will flow between the agents through the linkages that connect them. Furthermore, the tax imposed by the regulator is investigated. The model is subjected to goodness of fit to the empirical observations of the S\&P500. The fitting of the model is refined by calibrating the model parameters through heuristic approach, particularly, scatter search. Conclusively, the parameters are validated against normality, absence of correlations, volatility cluster and leverage effect using statistical tests.
Social Simulation using MABS. At present, research to expand SocLab in order to model emotions and morality.
Others: Organisations, Soft Systems, Planning methodologies.
Volker Grimm currently works at the Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Volker does research in ecology and biodiversity research.
How to model it: Ecological models, in particular simulation models, often seem to be formulated ad hoc and only poorly analysed. I am therefore interested in strategies and methods for making ecological modelling more coherent and efficient. The ultimate aim is to develop preditive models that provide mechanstic understanding of ecological systems and that are transparent and structurally realistic enough to support environmental decision making.
Pattern-oriented modelling: This is a general strategy of using multiple patterns observed in real systems as multiple criteria for chosing model structure, selecting among alternative submodels, and inversely determining entire sets of unknown model parameters.
Individual-based and agent-based modelling: For many, if not most, ecological questions individual-level aspects can be decisive for explaining system-level behavior. IBM/ABMs allow to represent individual heterogeneity, local interactions, and/or adaptive behaviour
Ecological theory and concepts: I am particularly interested in exploring stability properties like resilience and persistence.
Modelling for ecological applications: Pattern-oriented modelling allows to develop structurally realistic models, which can be used to support decision making and the management of biodiversity and natural resources. Currently, I am involved in the EU project CREAM, where a suite of population models is developed for pesticide risk assessment.
Standards for model communication and formulation: In 2006, we published a general protocol for describing individual- and agent-based models, called the ODD protocol (Overview, Design concepts, details). ODD turned out to be more useful (and needed) than we expected.
Yiyu Wang is a PhD student in Center for Spatial Analysis and Policy (CSAP), at University of Leeds. Currently her research interests are the forward-looking simulation model of pedestrian evacuating behaviours especially in emergency situations incorporating Bayesian game theory within multi-agent systems, and their interactions with other social factors.
BIGSSS-Departs PhD Fellow
Bremen International Graduate School of Social Sciences / Jacobs University (Germany)
PhD project: Residential Segregation and Intergenerational Immigrant Integration: A Schelling-Esser Model
Italian PhD fellow, fond of social complexity and agent-based modeling, applied to residential segregation and integration processes
Research Interests: Agent-based modeling, migrant integration, residential segregation
Senior (Tenure-Track) Assistant Professor in Work and Organizational Psychology (WOP) at the Human Sciences Department of Verona University. My expertise lies in organizational behavior, individual differences and decision-making at work, and social dynamics in the applied psychology field. In the field of fundamental research my studies explore the role of individual antecedents (e.g., Personality traits, Risk attitudes, etc.) in relation to classic I/O models (e.g., Job Demands-Resources model, Effort-Reward model, etc.). My applied research focuses on the development of interventions and policies for enhancing decision-making, and in turn well-being and job performance. Finally, in industrial research, my research aims to better integrate cognitive and behavioral theories (e.g., Theory of Planned Behavior, Prospect theory, etc.) for designing predictive models – based on agents – of social and organizational behaviors.
Ecology - Natural Resources Management (Community-based management)
I worked on natural resources management modelling in STELLA. I developed a technical and scientific model to analyze soil, climate and biological conditions to explain how Bamboo ecosystem works and how people in Cundinamarca, Colombia could focus on a sustainable model for use and manage forestry resources.
Also, I worked on the seventh framework program named: Community-based management of Environmental Challenges in Latin America -COMET-LA-. The project built a learning arena with scientists, civil society and government to identify sustainable models for governance of natural resources in social-ecological systems located in a rural context from Colombia, México and Argentina.
I am interesting in research on Modelling of governance and Community-based management of natural resources.
Eric Kameni holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science option modeling and application from the Radboud University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands, after a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science in Application Development and a Diploma in Master’s degree with Thesis in Computer Science on “modeling the diffusion of trust in social networks” at the University of Yaoundé I in Cameroon. My doctoral thesis focused on developing a model-based development approach for designing ICT-based solutions to solve environmental problems (Natural Model based Design in Context (NMDC)).
The particular focus of the research is the development of a spatial and Agent-Based Model to capture the motivations underlying the decision making of the various actors towards the investments in the quality of land and institutions, or other aspects of land use change. Inductive models (GIS and statistical based) can extrapolate existing land use patterns in time but cannot include actors decisions, learning and responses to new phenomena, e.g. new crops or soil conservation techniques. Therefore, more deductive (‘theory-driven’) approaches need to be used to complement the inductive (‘data-driven’) methods for a full grip on transition processes. Agent-Based Modeling is suitable for this work, in view of the number and types of actors (farmer, sedentary and transhumant herders, gender, ethnicity, wealth, local and supra-local) involved in land use and management. NetLogo framework could be use to facilitate modeling because it portray some desirable characteristics (agent based and spatially explicit). The model develop should provide social and anthropological insights in how farmers work and learn.
I am a Postdoctoral Associate in the Ecology, Evolution and Behavior department at the University of Minnesota. My research involves using agent-based models combined with lab and field research to test a broad range of hypotheses in biology. I am currently developing an agent-based model of animal cell systems to investigate the epigenetic mechanisms that influence cell behavior. For my PhD work, I created a model, B3GET, which simulates the evolution of virtual primates to better understand the relationships between growth and development, life history and reproductive strategies, mating strategies, foraging strategies, and how ecological factors drive these relationships. I have also conducted fieldwork to inform the modeled behavior of these virtual organisms. Here I am pictured with an adult male gelada in Ethiopia!
I specialize in creating agent-based models of biological systems for research and education in genetics, evolution, demography, ecology, and behavior.
As a Master’s Thesis student, I am intended to apply Artificial Intelligence to an already existing model with the aim of making it more accurate.
Even though I do not have the focus point and the scope of the research clear yet, the road map is set to start from a very simple model to validate the technology and methodology used and then continue with more abitiuos projects.
I like the co-operation that I have found in this space and I think that I could both learn a lot from the community and add value with my novel trials and findings.
Of course I would be pleased to update the status of my project and I would try to help if I have the proper knowledge or different angle to other peers who seek for seconds opinions.
Thank you,
Francisco
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