Model of the Corona pandemic outbreak

The COVID-19 ABM aims to predict the qualitative behaviour of the CoViD-19 epidemic dynamics for the greater region of Salzburg City. Specifically, by means of scenario testing, it aims to help assessing how containment interventions can allow a stepwise relaxation of the lockdown without risking a new outbreak.

Pandemic (pip install pandemic)

An agent model in which commuting, compliance, testing and contagion parameters drive infection in a population of thousands of millions. Agents follow Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes in the plane and collisions drive transmission. Results are stored at SwarmPrediction.com for further analysis, and can be retrieved by anyone.

This is a very simple simulation that in a special case can be shown to be approximated by a compartmental model with time varying infection rate.

The application of a smartphone application to register physical encounters between individuals is considered by public health authorities, as a means to reduce the number of infections in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The general idea is that continuous registration of all other smartphones in the vicinity of an individual’s smartphone potentially enables early warning of the owners of the other smartphones, in case the individual is tested positive as infected. Those other individuals can then go into isolation and be considered for testing. The purpose of the present simulation is to explore the potential effects of this application on frequencies of infection, isolation, and positive and negative infection test results.

The St Anthony flu model is an epidemiological model designed to test hypotheses related to the spread of the 1918 influenza pandemic among residents of a small fishing community in Newfoundland and Labrador. The 1921 census data from Newfoundland and Labrador are used to ensure a realistic model population; the community of St. Anthony, NL, located on the tip of the Northern Peninsula of the island of Newfoundland is the specific population modeled. Model agents are placed on a map-like grid that consists of houses, two churches, a school, an orphanage, a hospital, and several boats. They engage in daily activities that reflect known ethnographic patterns of behavior in St. Anthony and other similar communities. A pathogen is introduced into the community and then it spreads throughout the population as a consequence of individual agent movements and interactions.

A global model of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic. It can be run to match history or explore counterfactual questions about the influence of World War I on the dynamics of the epidemic. Explores two theories of the location of the initial infection.